CLIMATE change is happening right now. The dominant economic system is failing and, 13 years after President Bush’s ‘mission accomplished’ speech, there is still no realistic prospect of peace in Iraq.

The Taliban are back in Afghanistan and ISIS, Al-Qaeda and Boko Haram are examples of a powerful and elusive new threat operating from the margins.

Such was the blunt message which Paul Rogers, Professor of Peace Studies at Bradford University and renowned authority on global security, brought to a packed audience at this year’s sixth Hexham Debate, on May 14.

Prof. Rogers believes that world affairs are poised at a critical period of transition.

He argued that it is now essential to recognise the connections between what are actually different aspects of one huge global crisis, and to address the underlying causes, because the so-called control paradigm, whereby major powers try to suppress and contain insurgency by force, has failed.

Among these underlying causes is the fact that worldwide access to education has improved enormously, but jobs and prospects simply do not exist for the newly-educated majority on the margins.

Life may be fine for a significant minority, but for perhaps four fifths of the world population it is not fine, and they know it.

This denial of prospects, combined with recognition of the increasing gulf between rich and poor, can result in what has been called a revolution of frustrated expectations – something which ISIS and others, such as the neo-Marxist Naxalites in India, readily exploit.

Prof. Rogers spoke of irregular warfare as a pattern for the future, with extreme movements benefiting from technological advances in ways their opponents could never have envisaged.

An example is the development of remote control warfare, with the US favouring the use of drones rather than risking boots on the ground.

As recently as two years ago, only the US and Israel manufactured drones, but now some 60 countries are making them and 15 are exporting them.

Miniature drones, equipped with explosives, can be shoulder-launched and components are available off the shelf.

ISIS is likely to acquire such equipment, describing this as a process of blowback – the unforeseen consequence of the US attempt to wage war remotely, he warned.

Prof. Rogers has been called a secular prophet for our troubled age.

He defines prophecy as ‘suggesting the possible’ and he told his audience that he remains an optimist, partly because of the increasing number of invitations he receives to speak to members of the military, many of whom recognise the need for a new approach.

He also sees cause for hope in some new approaches to economic thinking, and in the way that renewable energy technologies are advancing.

A regular speaker at Hexham Debates, Prof. Rogers never fails to impress with his eloquent delivery and total command of a hugely complex and ever-changing subject.

A video of his complete talk and the subsequent discussion can be seen at: https://vimeo.com/166630541.

Rosemary Burton